(Jan. 17, 2009, Mercury News)

This season’s lack of rain is so severe that weather forecasters already are comparing it to 1976-77, the driest on record for the Central Coast.

In fact, if the warm, sunny days and blue skies continue, thousands of county residents could be forced to ration water in a way not seen since the drought of 1987 to 1992, said Bill Kocher, director of the Santa Cruz Water Department.

“I continue to have confidence that it won’t continue to be like this. It surely isn’t going to be this dry through February and March,” Kocher said. “But my job isn’t to be hopeful, it’s to be realistic. And realistically, we have to do some very serious planning for a water shortage emergency.”

Between December 1976 and February 1977, the middle of the driest rainy season on record, Santa Cruz received 4.51 inches of rain, said Steve Anderson, meteorologist for the National Weather Service.

Since December 2008 through today, Anderson said, only 3.26 inches of rain have fallen and no more is predicted for the next 10 days.

In a normal year, 17.1 inches of rain falls in Santa Cruz between December and February, Anderson said. In January alone, a normal year brings 6.5 inches, making it the wettest month on the calendar.

So far this year, .29 inches has fallen. Five times that amount must fall in February to match the three-month total for winter 1976-77.

Those numbers have Kocher fearing the worst.

Because the Santa Cruz Water Department draws three-quarters of its typical 4 billion gallon annual supply from rivers and streams, a dry year immediately affects how much water customers can use, Kocher said. His department serves about 90,000 county residents and 38,000 businesses from just south of Davenport to Capitola, and Henry Cowell Redwoods State Park to the Santa Cruz shore.Loch Lomond reservoir, which supplements the city’s water supply, holds 2.8 billion gallons and is only 78 percent full, Kocher said. In addition, he said, that water might need to be saved in case 2009-10 is dry, too.

If this trend continues, Kocher said, residents might be assigned a water allocation this summer that they cannot exceed without paying a hefty fine. Pools might not be filled, cars not washed and landscaping not sprinkled. If the county becomes extremely parched, Kocher said, water conservation measures might force some restaurants to close at lunch or use paper plates to save water. Other businesses also could take a hit as they cut back.

At Shadowbrook in Capitola, manager Marc Davis said the eatery is a certified green business, and already limits water use and taps well water for all toilets. Hopefully, he said, those ongoing efforts would spare staff from drastic water cuts or changes during a drought.

No matter the weather, though, Davis doubted that paper plates would ever be served on Shadowbrook’s white tablecloths.

“We are a fine dining restaurant and one of the most romantic restaurants in the universe, and we want to give our guests what they deserve,” Davis said. “We would find another way to cut water.”

Kocher said he must decide on any rationing by mid-March, so staff has time to put water-saving measures in place and get the word out.

Contact G. Bookwalter at 706-3286 or gbookwalter@santacruzsentinel.com.

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